Under 2.5 Goals The Value Bet For Chelsea v Barcelona

By Sam Darby on 18/04/2012 11:00

Chelsea take on Barcelona in the Champions League Semi Final First Leg tonight at Stamford Bridge and it seems likely Chelsea will need a comfortable win if they are to stand much of a chance of making it through to the final with a much tougher match at the Nou Camp awaiting. Does ValueChecker think that Chelsea have much of a chance in this match?

It seems Chelsea’s best win could be a 2-0 victory as the ValueChecker Value Bets are highlighting under 2.5 goals as the best bet for Chelsea v Barcelona. This seems a little surprising as most will be backing over 2.5 goals with so much attacking talent on show but the value often comes from going against the majority and let’s not forget that the ValueChecker Value Bets are based on a statistical analysis of previous results. ValueChecker thinks that under 2.5 goals should be a 1.96 shot rather than the 2.10 shot they currently are and that difference in odds means that this bet has been assigned a value rating of 0.28.

Didier Drogba played on Sunday in the FA Cup which suggests that Fernando Torres could be given the nod for this match and that could help this game be under 2.5 goals. According to the Chelsea ValueChecker wikis, Didier Drogba proved an important player for Chelsea in the 10/11 Premiership season, not only providing his team with 12 goals but also 15 assists, expect the number of goals Chelsea score to go down whenever Drogba doesn’t play for Chelsea. This is no one off, in the 09/10 season Drogba played a hand in 42 goals, scoring 29 and setting up 13. When Drogba doesn’t play Chelsea seem less potent.

If Chelsea are to score then it could be Frank Lampard who scores for them as he not only has a good record from open play but he also takes penalties and Chelsea seem to get more penalties than any other team. In the 10/11 Premiership season Chelsea were awarded 6 penalties and in the 09/10 season they were awarded a huge 11 penalties and that was more than the rest of the Premiership teams.  

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