St Leger News and Preview - can Frankie bring Rewilding home in front?
The Guineas is won by the fittest horse, the Derby by the luckiest and the St Leger by the best horse, so goes the saying. Indeed, 5 of the last 10 runnings have gone to the favourite and Mastery’s 14/1 success last year was the biggest price across the same period. Godolphin owned the 2009 victor of course and the runner-up, Kite Wood and this year they have the hot favourite REWILDING in their care. It looks fairly simple on paper, the ever-improving colt scooted away from Midas Touch and Joshua Tree to win the Great Voltigeur by 4-lengths and ought not to be beat if running to that from again.
The Ballydoyle duo that filled the places can cling to the truths that a 3 lb penalty and lack of match fitness respectively didn’t help their causes but even so, they were comprehensively out pointed. Aidan O’Brien commented on Midas Touch; "He is a very consistent horse and ran a great race in the Irish Derby," said O'Brien. We think he's still on the upgrade. We gave him a break after the Irish Derby and used the Voltigeur as a trial for the Leger. He was giving Rewilding 3lb there, they went a good gallop and we were delighted." On Joshua Tree; "We were very happy to get a run into him," explained O'Brien. "He was held up in the spring and was just starting when he went to York. It took the edge off him and he came home very well."
Midas Touch looks solid place material and I am inclined to think that is the bet. Of the rest, Dandino is popular as a Northern trained runner and he stepped up well to Group 3 level last time. He could run well at around 7/1 but Snow Fairy looks one to take on at a similar price to my mind. One who could outrun his huge odds in the Mark Johnston trained Corsica. Although he has to find a lot on the book, he is a powerful and game stayer who could make a decent fist of things from the front. There are no pacemakers to take him on and he is sure to trade shorter in-running than his current odds of 66/1.
Over in Ireland, it is also St Leger day and the 6-y-o mare, Profound Beauty is the current favourite. There is a slight doubt about her participation if the heavens should open though, with the racing manager for Moyglare Stud saying "She'll run provided it doesn't come up too soft. She ran last year and it was a bog. She's in smashing form and cantered up this morning. If we get the ground for her, she'll have a great chance."
Aidan O'Brien is seemingly quite bullish about the chances of his horse, Flying Cross who made his seasonal bow at Tipperary two weeks ago, winning well.
"We gave him plenty of time. He won his maiden very easily at Navan and has a super pedigree but you try not to go with them all at the same time - you can leave some of them alone for later. We always had the Legers in mind and it was great to get a run into him. The Tipperary race came along, he ran there and won nicely. Everything we have asked him to do, he has done nicely."
Away from the Classic meetings, there is a decent card down at Goodwood and in the first at 2.25, it might be worth taking a chance with MARAJAA. At the age of eight, the gelding should be in decline and struggling at this level but Willie Musson has done a marvellous job with the horse and this season has seen the horse reach new heights. Handicapped to go well and plenty of close efforts in this type of race, including when winning at the Glorious festival here in 2009. There is a worry which concerns the horse’s come from behind style. Backers will be at the mercy of Lady Luck but if he does get a clear run through from the rear, he would have no excuse for not being involved.
QUEST FOR SUCCESS looks to hold a really solid chance in the Ladbrokes sponsored Portland Handicap at Doncaster, a course where he was won twice already from 3 starts. Although a fairly exposed 5-y-o, the horse appears to be in the form of his life and he has run well and gone close in all 6 of his runs during 2010. Conditions look favourable for another big run and even though it is fair to say the handicapper has got hold of him on paper, he is still likely to give it another good shot and he looks a decent each-way bet. If you shop around, you can get paid on the fifth placed horse and that looks a good deal.
In the Chester 3.05, LUCKY DAN makes some appeal at a price. He does have a bit of a question to answer regarding this extended 7f trip but there is stamina on the dam's side and he shapes as though he will stay. His price doubtless reflects the stamina doubt but that aside, he looks to have as good a chance as any here. Firstly, he has winning course form and has run well on other occasions when not getting a clean run through. His fourth here in June over the bare 7f when he was an unlucky fourth puts him bang there on form. Franny Norton takes the ride, having partnered the horse to victory twice before and he has a good record around this tight course. Softish ground wouldn't be a major concern as he has gone well in similar conditions the last twice and comes here fit and in-form. Just a hefty slice of luck needed for a prominent showing.