Rory McIlroy looks too short in 2011 British Open betting
Rory McIlroy's victory in last month's US Open was absolutely breathtaking and make no mistake they'll be plenty more majors to come, but his current odds of around 9.00 to land the 2011 British Open represents poor value in my opinion and below I'll attempt to explain why.
Looking at the last ten winners of the British Open, their age when winning the tournament ranged from 26 to 38 years old. As most of you will know links golf is completely different to the other events regularly played on both tours with the weather and the odd unlucky bounce often having a baring on the final outcome.
Patience could prove to be a vital part of the eventual winners armour this week and maybe that is where the age statistic comes into play. The flamboyance of Rory McIlroy, Jason Day and Rickie Fowler, all 23 years old or younger, may be unsuited to the challenge that the Royal St Georges Golf Club at Sandwich in Kent could bring.
Two top fifty finishes were the best Rory could offer in this event prior to last year where admittedly he did finish in third place with three rounds in the sixties, however a second round score of eighty when the wind was blowing went some way to proving his possible vulnerability should conditions deteriorate this week.
We must also take into account the fact that he's not played since the US Open and has surely been doing the rounds as far as social events goes with every man and his dog wanting a piece of the new rising star of golf.
The reasons for players over the age of 38 not winning recently could just be coincidental, but is more likely due to the fact that they no longer quite have the hunger of their younger counterparts and also that four days in tough conditions can prove rather tiresome for golfers that have inevitably picked up the odd injury during their long careers.
Below are the main contenders ruled out if taking the age factor into consideration -
McIlroy 22, Mickelson 41, Day 23, Stricker 44, Manassero 18, Harrington 39, Choi 41, Wood 23, Karlsson 41, Els 41, Fowler 22, Goosen 42, Furyk 41, Cabrera 41, Bjorn 40, Clarke 42, Jiminez 47, Allenby 39, Singh 48 and Ishikawa 19.
So these are the three players we'll be pinning our hopes on to lift the claret jug -
1) Lee Westwood – Finishes of 3rd and 2nd the last two years proves liking for links golf, currently playing as well as ever, old enough to tick the patience box, but with no major victories the hunger is still burning bright.
2) Edoardo Molinari – With his confidence now at an all time high after two wins on tour in 2010 and his first appearance in a Ryder Cup team coming that year also, the older of the Molinari brothers could well surprise a few people this week. His eleventh place finish at the US Masters proved he can handle the big time and a solid effort in the Scottish Open can only strengthen his claims.
3) Aaron Baddeley – Turned thirty this year and at last is starting to fulfil the promise he showed early in his career. A winner on the US Tour this season he can also boast three other top ten finishes. No real links form as yet, but has been quoted saying he likes windy conditions. Looks totally overpriced at 125/1 with Ladbrokes and possibly bigger still on Betfair.