Man City Value To Maintain 100% Home Record At Chelsea's Expense

By Sam Darby on 20/03/2012 15:25

Chelsea were the first team to beat Man City in the Premiership this season but can they become the first team to beat Man City at Eastlands this season when the two teams meet on Wednesday evening? The game is sure to be popular with fans and punters alike and ValueChecker should have the best tips for Man City v Chelsea.

The bet that has caught the eye of the ValueChecker Value Bets is yet another home win for Man City. The ValueChecker Value Bets are based upon a statistical analysis of previous results and with Man city having won every single home game this season in the Premiership and Chelsea having won just one of their last seven away league games it is no surprise that ValueChecker has selected this match as one of the best value bets of the day. Man City are available at 1.92 at the time of writing to win this match but according to ValueChecker they should be more like 1.72 and that difference in odds means that this bet has been given a value rating of 0.37 by ValueChecker.

The Man City ValueChecker wikis show just how strong Man City have been at home this season. They have played 14 league games at home this season and have won all those matches, the majority of them very easily. The ease of those victories is shown by the goal difference for Man City at Eastlands, they have scored 42 goals at home which is an average of 3 goals a match whilst they have conceded only 6 goals, which is a goal conceded every 2.33 matches. Those figures mean Man City have boosted their goal difference by 36 goals in 14 matches. The next best record is Man Utd at home but their home goal difference is only 24 so Man City are clearly very strong when playing at home.

If Chelsea are going to score in this match then the best time to back them to score could be late on in the match according to the Chelsea ValueChecker wikis. Chelsea have a great record of scoring late goals in their Premiership games. In the 10/11 Premiership season Chelsea scored 20 goals between the 76th minute and the final whistle whilst the season before they had an even better record scoring 26 goals between the 76th minute and the final whistle. In both seasons no team scored more goals in that time window than any other team so this could be a great in running pointer for this match.

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