Light From Mars the value in the Lincoln but Taqleed a worthy favourite
The William Hill Lincoln has long been a punter’s favourite and the Doncaster Showpiece still marks the start of the turf season on the flat, despite a blurring of the line. This year’s race features a short-priced favourite and with the last two winners being sent off at less than 4/1, a pattern is starting to emerge and a surprising one at that given the competitiveness of these big handicaps.
John Gosden sent out Expresso Star to win in 2009 and it is his runner Taqleed that has fired the punters’ collective imagination for Saturday. For stats fans, 6 of the past 8 runnings have been won by a 4-y-o and that is mostly on account of the potential improvement horses of that age have at this early stage of their 3rd season on the track and with just four runs to his name, no one can argue that Sheikh Hamdan’s horse is in any way exposed. After winning a maiden last August, Taqleed went on win a class 3 handicap a fortnight later over 10f and then finished a highly creditable 6th in the Cambridgeshire, a race whose runners approach as many as contest the Grand National. That’s the c.v. really and the horse has reportedly been working well so must have a huge chance. Detractors can cling to the possibility that this will be plenty sharp enough and that is a real threat and in any case, how much meat is on the bone at 4/1? My personal view is that he could win by 4-lengths and I will certainly be including him in my portfolio.
Another 4-y-o who has a big chance looks to be Barry Hills’ representative Gunner Lindley. It was this race in 1969 which launched the career of one of Britain's most enduring and successful trainers and there is no doubt that the selection will arrive here in top form. Barry has his horses well forward as a rule and stall 18 may well turn out to be an advantage. Take my advice, always have at least one running for you either side and Dream Lodge, representing Dandy Nicholls, has the form to go well at a huge price from stall 20.
Sticking with Dandy Nicholls, Light From Mars, who has joined the yard from Rod Millman for this season, could be a decent outsider. Although a 6-y-o, there could be a little something more lurking off the change of scenery and the horse has run into the 100's eight times. Racing of 97 for the Lincoln. Has run well here more than once and has tended to go well on his seasonal debut in previous seasons. Tom Queally is 3-3 for the yard so his booking has to be viewed as a positive so there is a lot to like.
Of the rest, Docofthebay, another Nicholls trained horse is massively well treated if you take his near-win in a listed race at face value. Given that was a prep-run, the horse is clearly in really good heart and although he isn’t the easiest, he could well be involved from stall 13 if higher numbers hold sway.
Mark Johnston runs the honest Tartan Gigha and the 6-y-o is certainly on a winning mark. Drawn in stall 2, a little less watering might have favoured this likeable type but another who appeals each way at 20/1.
A mention is surely deserved by Richard Fahey, a leading trainer at any time of the year but another who has his horses quite forward as a rule. With 6-entries, he could well be bagging this race and the pick of his are in my view Prime Exhibit and Irish Heartbeat.
Had the heavens opened, I might have been tempted by Dubai Hills, a horse who has been ultra-impressive at Southwell this winter. As it is, the ground may be too quick but I wouldn’t be a layer at 50/1.
In summary, don’t be afraid to back a few of these but my value selection is going to be LIGHT FROM MARS each-way with one of the bookmakers offering 5 places.