Kauto Star and Master Minded both on course for King George, but stats are against Paul Nicholls' duo
Champion trainer Paul Nicholls has confirmed in his Betfair blog that the Clive Smith-owned duo, Kauto Star and Master Minded, are both on course for the King George VI Chase at Kempton Park on Boxing Day. But what are the chances of one of Nicholls’ stable stars coming out on top this time? If the stats are to be believed, the prospects for that duo are not good.
While Kauto Star has won the Grade 1 chase an unprecedented four times, he’s now 11, and horses older than 10 do not boast a good record in this festive showpiece. Indeed, since the inaugural running in 1937, just three horses aged 11 or over have landed the race – Southern Hero (1937), Desert Orchid (1990) and Edredon Bleu (2003).
Meanwhile, it’s been at least 28 years since a horse won the King George without having previously raced over the big-race trip of 3m, which puts the cat amongst the pigeons where Master Minded is concerned, as he hasn’t raced beyond 2m 4½f to date. Admittedly, Kempton is a sharp, flat track, but they will go a strong gallop on Boxing Day, so he will certainly need to stay every yard if he’s to prevail.
If I was to back either of Nicholls’ chasers, it would have to be Kauto Star, given how well he bounced back when beating Long Run on his seasonal reappearance in the Betfair Chase at Haydock. However, I’m as sure as can be that the latter, so impressive when winning this race and the Gold Cup last season, will turn the tables on December 26. His trainer, Nicky Henderson, would not have had his charge razor-sharp for that race, and we will see a fitter Long Run on King George day.
For punters, looking for an ante-post wager, he’s not a particularly appetising price, for all that he deserves to be a hot favourite to retain his crown. So what are the alternatives?
Philip Hobbs’ Captain Chris looks the obvious one to turn to, but like Master Minded he has stamina to prove. Personally, I feel that at 50-1 with Ladbrokes his stable companion PLANET OF SOUND, who is as short as 20s with bet365, rates a cracking each-way bet. I am shocked that the nine-year-old can be backed at such inflated odds. Don't forget, he won the Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup at the end of the 2009/10 season and has had just three starts since.
The selection was beaten a country mile behind Long Run in last season’s King George, granted, but he posted an excellent effort on his reappearance when chasing home Carruthers in the Hennessy at Newbury last month, and is entitled to come on a good deal for that outing, his first in more than 10 months. He probably won’t win, but at 50-1 I’ve come across few more appealing each-way bets in my time.