Juddmonte International Stakes Betting Preview – Await The Dawn to bag first Group One race?
The lightly-raced Await The Dawn, who has tasted defeat just once in six starts to date, bids to win his first Group One race in the prestigious Juddmonte International Stakes at York on Wednesday.
The son of Giant’s Causeway, already favourite the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Churchill Downs in November, has landed the odds in both outings so far this year in good style, latterly powering up the home straight to land the Group Two Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot in June by three lengths from Harris Tweed.
He is an imposing colt and his trainer Aidan O’Brien has predictably entered a pacemaker for this assignment, Windsor Palace, as a tactical race would not suit Await The Dawn. Given the four-year-old’s potential, he is certainly worth of his place at the head of the betting, but whether he deserves to be priced up at around the 4-6 mark is an altogether different question.
Despite being top of the pile on official ratings, Twice Over looks vulnerable, while Roderic O’Connor, another O’Brien contender and winner of the Irish 2,000 Guineas, needs a career-best by some way. However, MIDDAY is rock-solid and the 11-4 currently available about Sir Henry Cecil’s brilliant mare is too good to pass up.
Admittedly, the daughter of Oasis Dream has come out second best on the two previous occasions that she’s came up against a colt – O’Brien’s St Nicholas Abbey was a length too strong for her in the Coronation Cup at Epsom’s Derby meeting – but her form credentials are far more solid than Await The Dawn’s – he’s all about potential at this stage whereas Midday brings collateral to the table.
I may be totally wrong, and Await The Dawn will prove himself to be the real deal on the Knavesmire – he’ll certainly need to win with authority to justify his position in the Breeders’ Cup Classic ante-post market – but betting is all about odds, and odds need to be commensurate with the risk. At 4-6 Await The Dawn and 11-4 Midday, I know I’d rather be risking!