It’s almost inconceivable that Big Buck’s will be toppled when he goes to post for the Ladbrokes World Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival on March 13. At the time of writing, he is no bigger than around the 8-13 mark to win the race formerly known as the Stayers’ Hurdle for an unprecedented fourth time, and his odds will doubtless contract even further if he wins the Cleeve Hurdle, his intended prep run for the Festival on January 28.
From a value perspective, …
With January almost over, opportunities for Nicky Henderson to get a run into Riverside Theatre ahead of his intended Cheltenham Festival target, the Ryanair Chase, are diminishing. From an ante-post punters’ perspective the gelding may, therefore, be perceived as a risky bet for that Grade 1 contest.
However, from what can be gleaned from valuechecker.com’s unique horse racing Wikis, the son of King’s Theatre is well worth risking in the ante-post market,…
The Irish Independent Arkle Trophy looks right up to standard this year with some really decent novice chasers set to line-up. Looking to the past trends for pointers; the winner is likely to be aged between five and eight, although given this is a top class novice chase, that is hardly surprising and one has to go back to 1988 to find a winner outside of this age bracket. The last ten winners all had no more than five races over fences coming into this; slightly more relevant…
The David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle is one of the newer races at the festival and as such, trends are not yet mature for the final race on day one. There is one trend that stands out though; Willie Mullins’ Irish mare Quevega has won three of the four runnings in 2009, 2010 & 2011. The good news for stat fans is that she is due to line-up again and I see no reason to oppose her for win purposes. Trainer Willie Mullins has master minded this top race-mare’s…
The Genfarclas Cross Country race at the festival is a bit of a marmite type of affair and on too many occasions, races on this unusual bank course are marred by the jockeys being unable to successfully navigate the complex course layout. Still, the latest debacle will hopefully bring some further preventative measures and the riders involved in the Championship race of this sphere are all likely to be experienced and competent.
Looking at the trends and stats for the race,…
The Coral Cup held on the Wednesday at Cheltenham is one of the bigger betting races of the festival and with a maximum field, this handicap is always competitive.
If we look at some of the stats from the previous runnings, there are definitely some useful pointers and also a few likely to mislead. Firstly, let's dispel the myth that this is a bad race for favourites. A single winning favourite in the past 10-years is what we would statistically expect and that is exactly…
The 2012 running of the Champion Chase could be a small-field affair as many of those in the ante-post betting list are shorter for the Ryanair.
Looking to the Wiki content for clues, it seems the strongest credentials are held by SIZING EUROPE. Although tried over 3miles, Sizing Europe showed that he retains the speed for 2-miles when impressively winning the Tingle Creek this year at Sandown Park. That should not have come as a surprise as the Irish-trained gelding has been…
Any thoughts that Kauto Star should have been retired at the end of last season were firmly dispelled when the eleven year-old trounced his rivals in the Betfair Chase at Haydock Park on Saturday.
In a field that included current Cheltenham Gold Cup and King George VI Chase champion Long Run, Charlie Hall Chase winner Weird Al, plus Diamond Harry and Time For Rupert, the Paul Nicholls trained gelding went off at 6/1, which in fact was the biggest price he has been returned…
As the National Hunt season begins to hit top gear we thought we'd take a look at the current betting for the 2012 Cheltenham Gold Cup. Reigning champion Long Run is the bookmakers clear favourite at a best priced 3.50 with Ladbrokes and William Hill and it would take a brave man to oppose him after witnessing not only his destruction of a quality 2011 Gold Cup field, but also the way in which he won the King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day.
The worry for any of…
Paul Nicholls has today confirmed that both Kauto Star and Denman will stay in training as 12-y-o’s.
After both horses ran huge races in this week’s Gold Cup, without being able to cope with the much younger Long Run, there was much speculation that the pair would be retired at the end of this season.
Speaking on Twitter, Nicholls said: "Just to end all speculation and rumour once and for all Kauto and Denman are not going to be retired!"
It…
The Queen Mother Champion Chase is of course the highlight of the Wednesday and after today, the dividing line between those who think Master Minded is a true great and those who think that he is perhaps a waning power, will be breached on one side or the other. I am not going to copy down the formbook here but a record of 11-wins from his last 14 including two Champion Chases is evidence enough that one could reasonably tell the detractors to be quiet. Last year of course, it…
The first of the festival handicaps and whilst I am always wary of trends, it is definitely worth taking on board that the last ten winners have carried 10st 12lb or less. If we take that as important and concentrate on those in that weight band, we reduce the field down quite nicely and put a pen through a couple of the market leaders.
Of those we are left with, the horse that immediately caught my eye was RAZOR ROYALE and the current 33/1 gets me quite excited. Trainer Nigel …
The Irish Independent Arkle brings together the top 2 mile novice chasers and this year’s renewal looks quite open at the front of the market. The most notable trend for this race concerns the market as all of the past 10 winners have won at a single figure SP. Head of the market this year is Alan King’s Medermit and the grey would be a popular winner. As always, the importance of Cheltenham form springs immediately to mind and it is a fair truth that Medermit is…
Binocular has sensationally been withdrawn from Tuesday's Stan James Champion Hurdle after trainer Nicky Henderson revealed that treatment for an allergy would cause the horse to test positive. Henderson issued the following statement this morning;
"He had an allergy two weeks ago that did not respond to initial medication and, on veterinary advice and well within normal parameters, he required a further treatment the following day. As we were getting close to the…
In shocking news this morning, Nicky Henderson has been forced to declare ante post favourite Binocular a non runner in the Champion Hurldle.
In a move that is almost a total reversal of last years pre race events when touted not to run, only to go and win the race, ante post punter will be left wondering if they have done their money.
Not if have backed it non runner no bet, or indeed if with Paddy Power who have announced they will refund all ante post bets for…
Trainer Willie Mullins has confirmed that Ruby Walsh will be aboard Hurricane Fly in the Stan James Champion Hurdle on Tuesday. No doubt the fact that Ruby found the winners’ enclosure on Saturday contributed to the decision and Paul Townend will now switch to the yard’s other runner, Thousand Stars.
Mullins told reporters that he had discussed things with the owners and both jockeys before making the decision and summarised “Ruby is our number-one rider and…
Off we go with Cheltenham 2011 and the traditional Supreme Novices roar, most eyes will be tracking Cue Card, the winner of last year’s bumper and next to Quevega, the hottest festival favourite of the week. Opinions will be divided on every horse in every race and with Cue Card, there are plenty who deem him unbeatable in this whilst others will point to him being twice the price of the certainty that was Dunguib a year ago and play on the fact that the only time he has…
Ante-post RSA Chase favourite Time For Rupert was recently put through his paces in a final piece of work prior to his date with destiny at the Cheltenham Festival on March 16. The Paul Webber-trained gelding is generally a 9-4 chance for the staying novice chasers’ crown, but is a best-priced 3.38 on Betdaq at the time of writing.
Will Kennedy, Time For Rupert’s jockey, wrote on his Twitter page recently: ‘Just rode Rupert in his last bit of work on the…
David Pipe hosted his press day on Tuesday and the horse everyone wanted to be around was the handsome grey, Grands Cruz. Dramatically progressive this season, the 6-y-o has kicked all other challengers to Big Buck’s crown way down the market and it is easy to cite this race as effectively a match. Not so in Pipe junior’s eye though, with the trainer keen to refuse suggestions that Big Bucks and Grand Crus would fight a lone duel and putting up the Willie Mullins…
Ruby Walsh is not short of the odd decent ride at Cheltenham but he is not seemingly aware if he will be on board Willie Mullins’ Hurricane Fly in the Stan James Champion Hurdle on day one. Although Walsh was on board for 3-wins (from 3 rides), his enforced absence with injury has allowed Paul Townend to win 3-more Grade One races on the hurdler and the stats are now 6-7 under Townend.
"I haven't talked to Willie about it - it's a decision for him and the…