Liverpool are only three points behind Fulham after what has been a disappointing and inconsistent league campaign for both teams. Liverpool have struggled to pick up wins at home whilst Fulham have had the same problem away from home so whether either team can pick up all three points in this match is open to debate, what does ValueChecker think the best bets are here?
The ValueChecker Value Bets have thrown up two bets for this match in different markets and the best of them looks to be under 2.5 goals. The ValueChecker Value Bets are based on a statistical analysis of previous results and it certainly looks more likely that this game will have few goals rather than plenty and ValueChecker has assigned this bet a value rating of 0.31 because of the difference in current odds and what ValueChecker perceives to be the correct odds. At the time of writing you can get 2.15 on under 2.5 goals which is a big price for that bet, especially at Anfield, and ValueChecker thinks that 1.9 is a more realistic price for this bet.
The ValueChecker Value Bets have also gone for a surprise away win here. It is hard to argue that Fulham could be value here as they are 5.94 at the time of writing yet only seven teams have picked up less points at home than Liverpool. ValueChecker has suggested that the correct price for Fulham based on form should be more like 2.75 and as a result of that difference in odds ValueChecker has assigned this bet a value rating of 0.26.
If you want to wait and see how this game starts before following the ValueChecker Value Bets suggestion on backing Fulham then there could still be some in running value on the away team according to the Liverpool ValueChecker wikis. Liverpool have a bad record when they concede the first goal in their matches. In the 10/11 Premiership season Liverpool conceded the first goal in 10 games and lost 9 of them and the season before Liverpool conceded first in 13 of their matches and lost 11 of those games. That is a very large proportion for such a good team and Fulham could still be a fair price even if they take a lead in this game. Confidence may even be increased on in running bets on Fulham if they get to half time with a lead. According to the Fulham ValueChecker wikis they are one of the more reliable teams in the Premiership to back at half time when they hold a lead. In the 10/11 Premiership season Fulham were ahead at half time in 10 games and went on to win 8 of them whilst the season before Fulham were leading at half time in 9 games and won 7 of those matches.
The Fulham ValueChecker wikis also seem to suggest that the ValueChecker Value Bets have this game right as under 2.5 goals looks a good bet once again. Fulham are often involved in low scoring games when they are on their travels, in the 10/11 Premiership season Fulham were involved in more under 2.5 goals games away from home than any other team when 13 of their 19 away matches ended with under 2.5 goals. In the 09/10 season it was slightly less but backing under 2.5 goals in Fulham’s away games would still have been profitable as that result was a winner in 11 of their league games away from home.
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