Cheltenham Open Meeting: An in-depth betting preview of the Paddy Power Gold Cup
It never really feels as though the National Hunt season has truly kicked in until the Cheltenham Open Meeting, so this weekend is when the curtain is fully raised on the 2011/12 jumps campaign in my opinion.
The showpiece of this exciting three-day extravaganza at Prestbury Park, the Paddy Power Gold Cup, is one of my favourite races of the jumps calendar. It’s a race in which up-and-coming second-season chasers invariably lock horns with the more established types, a theme which is set to continue in this year’s renewal on Saturday.
There are very few big races that have eluded trainer Paul Nicholls, particularly over fences, but this valuable handicap has proven to be as elusive as the Scarlet Pimpernel for the Ditcheat handler, despite sending out several well-fancied contenders in recent years.
Indeed, Chapoturgeon was to the fore in the betting when falling in 2009, while Silverburn was made the 11-4 favourite in the 2008 renewal, finishing only sixth after a bad blunder at the second-last, and the year before that the exciting but sadly ill-fated Granit Jack, sent off the 3-1 market leader, was travelling strongly when departing at the second last.
Nicholls’ Paddy Power Gold Cup hoodoo will surely end sometime soon. Bookies’ odds compilers seem to believe it could be this weekend, as the champion trainer’s Mon Parrain is generally the 4-1 favourite for the Grade 3 event. However, as well as Nicholls’ own personal hoodoo, Mon Parrain will also need to buck a negative trend for five-year-olds in the race.
In total, 14 five-year-olds have attempted to land this prize since Cyfor Malta prevailed at that relatively tender age in 1998, and all have failed, including the brilliant Long Run last year. It seems almost hard to believe given the authority with which he went on to land the King George and the Gold Cup at the Festival here in March that Long Run failed to win this off a mark of 158 in 2010. The moral of the story is that the best or most well-handicapped horse doesn’t always win the Paddy Power.
Mon Parrain landed a relatively modest handicap chase at Sandown on his debut on the side of the Channel last term, but did it in fine style. Subsequently he lost little caste in defeat when chasing home Always Waining in the Topham Chase at Aintree, and there’s no doubt that the son of Trempolino is a sure-footed jumper, which will stand him in good stead on Saturday.
At around the 4-1 mark he’s way too short for me, though. I’d have liked to have seen him have a prep-race for this, as they’ll go hell for leather from the moment the tape’s raised on Saturday, and any ring-rustiness where Mon Parrain’s concerned will be cruelly exposed. Indeed, it may be more than a mere coincidence that four of the last five winners had a prep race prior to bagging this contest.
My advice is to have an each-way punt on THE GIANT BOLSTER who is available at 14-1 with Ladbrokes at the time of writing. I backed the gelding on his seasonal reappearance in a highly competitive handicap over timber at Chepstow, and while he didn’t win, he ran a cracking race in defeat, staying on to finish fourth of 17, beaten around eight lengths, behind Arthurian Legend.
That spin over hurdles will have served as an ideal prep for this weekend’s assignment, and the six-year-old remains unbeaten in all completed starts over fences to date. Admittedly, he failed to complete in three of his five starts in chases last season, but he proved how good a jumper he can be when defying top-weight in a good novices’ handicap at this track in January, and his present mark is just 6lb higher.
The Giant Bolster hails from a relatively small yard, that of David Bridgwater, but the Gloucestershire handler is adept at placing his charges to advantage, and his horses are in good nick at present. If Tom Scudamore can get his mount into a good rhythm in the early part of the race I am confident that the gelding will go close, with a strongly-run race at this trip sure to be right up his street.
Wishfull Thinking made up into a classy novice chaser last season and has to be taken seriously. He will meet Irish raiders Noble Prince and Loosen My Load on worse terms compared to when splitting that duo in the Jewson at the Festival here in March, but subsequently scored at the Aintree and Punchestown festivals in fine fashion, and remains open to improvement in this sphere.
The Pipe team boast a cracking record in this contest and Great Endeavour has to be taken seriously, while the likes of Araldur and Tullamore Dew are not without each-way prospects.