Can Barcelona be considered good value at around 7-4 to win the 2011/12 Champions League?

By Dylan Jenear on 07/11/2011 19:48

Despite the strength of the Premier League, which is widely perceived as the most competitive league in world football, the first three clubs in the betting to prevail in this season’s Champions League are all based outside of England.

In terms of strength in depth, it’s hard to argue that the Premiership isn’t the most hotly-contested league, but equally it’s hard to argue with the odds compilers’ unanimous assessment that Barcelona, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich, in that order, are the best three sides in Europe at present.

The Blaugrana were so imperious in this competition during 2010/11, which culminated in their 3-1 victory over Manchester United in the final at Wembley. While the scoreline was fairly emphatic as far as Champions League finals go, the bare result was, in fact, flattering to Sir Alex Ferguson’s men. Indeed, with the exception of the first 20 minutes of that heavyweight clash, Barca treated the Red Devils with utter disdain in London, and the chasm between the two sides was there for all to see.

In its current format, Barcelona have won the Champions League on four occasions, and been runners-up three times. Moreover, they’ve won Europe’s premier club competition three times in the last six seasons, underlining the fact that the Catalan outfit have been the outstanding club in the game, anywhere, in recent years. And, despite the odd slip-up, which is to be expected of any side during the course of the season, there has been few signs that their powers have diminished this time around.

So the question is, are Pep Guardiola’s charges a value bet at around the 7-4 mark to once again be crowned kings of Europe come what May? Many seem to think so – indeed, bookmakers have reported significant money for the Spanish giants since the beginning of the present campaign. However, while I cannot argue that they are the team to beat, I feel that both Real Madrid and Bayern Munich are well-equipped to reign supreme this season, too, and my money is on the Bavarians at a tempting 15-2 (generally available at the time of writing).

Real Madrid are flourishing under Jose Mourinho this season, picking up where they left off last season with goals galore, but looking even stronger defensively. The likes of Karim Benzema and Gonzalo Higuain had interrupted campaigns last season, but if that duo remain fit they, along with Cristiano Ronaldo, give Los Blancos a strike-force that is unrivalled by many sides.

The concern I have with the Bernabeu outfit, though, is whether they will be able to maintain their current form. They may well usurp Barca as Spanish champions, but when it comes to the latter stages of this competition they will be required to display real character and true grit, and Bayern possess both of those attributes in abundance.

Die Roten endured a torrid start last term and failed to achieve consistency under the stewardship of Louis van Gaal. Now, however, they look a well-oiled machine with Jupp Heynckes at the helm. The shaky defence of last season is no longer in evidence, while they are scoring goals as if goals are about to go out of fashion, both domestically and in Europe, with striker Mario Gomez looking sharper than ever.

That Bayern have looked so good without Arjen Robben is an ominous sign for any side they will meet in the second-half of the season. Indeed, the flying Dutchman is arguably the club’s most influential player when on-song, and while Heynckes would doubtless have the winger amongst his starting XI right away if he’s fit, Robben’s absence could prove a blessing in disguise later in the season, as he will be fresher than most.

Bastian Schweinsteiger has been ruled out for six weeks with a broken collarbone, an injury he picked up during Bayern’s recent 3-2 group match victory over Napoli, and he will be missed while sidelined. However, again, he will be another key player that will return to the fray at a crucial stage for the German giants.

Bayern Munich are currently sitting pretty at the summit of the Bundesliga table, and it will take a brave individual to suggest they will not wrest the domestic crown back from Borussia Dortmund this season. And they’re also leading the way in the Champions League group, Group A, which is incontrovertibly the toughest group in this season’s competition, featuring Manchester City, Napoli and Villarreal.

The Allianz Arena outfit lead that group with 10 points from four matches, a haul only equalled by Barcelona at this stage of the tournament, and only bettered by Real Madrid who currently head up Group D with 12 points. But the Spanish sides’ groups are nowhere near as tough as Bayern’s, and I reckon Heynckes’ men will grow stronger and stronger as the season progresses, and they rate a cracking bet to win this competition for the fifth time in their history this season.