bet365 Gold Cup Chase Betting Preview - two big price fancies for punters to get stuck into!
In many ways it’s a shame that Kauto Star isn’t going to post for Saturday’s bet365 Gold Cup Chase, but the connections of the 18 that are set to line-up for this valuable handicap will be happy since only one or two of them would have been running off their correct marks had the dual Cheltenham Gold Cup winner stood his ground.
Heading the market for this staying chase at Sandown is Baby Run, who has raced exclusively in hunter chases during the past few seasons. However, he’s been prolific in that sphere, and while it’s not easy to accurately assess the strength of his form in the context of a competitive handicap chase, the 11-year-old, who won the John Smith’s Fox Hunter’s at Aintree last time, could be well treated off a mark of 136.
Saying that, for all that his style of racing will lend itself well to this Esher track, as will his bold jumping, at around the 5-1 mark he doesn’t appeal from a value perspective. And this is a race that, during recent years, has thrown up a few surprises, with six of the last 10 winners returning at an SP of 14-1 of greater. I’m going to take two against the field at rewarding odds: CAN’T BUY TIME and EXMOOR RANGER, with 16-1 and 10-1 respectively available with traditional bookmakers.
That duo are two of only a quarter of course winners in the 18-strong field, the others being last year’s winner of this race, Church Island, and Meanus Dandy, who represents champion trainer Paul Nicholls. Firstly, Can’t Buy Time comes with risks attached, having failed to complete in three of his five starts so far this season. However, he’s now a stone lower in the ratings compared to when he made his reappearance at Ascot in October, so he could prove to be worth the risk.
While it is disconcerting that he has failed to trouble the judge during the present campaign, I felt that Can’t Buy Time showed enough to prove that the spark is still there when fifth of 15 to Tartak in a red-hot Grade 3 handicap at Cheltenham in January when racing off a 9lb higher mark than he will this weekend. In all truth, competitive though this year’s renewal of the bet365 Gold Cup is, it’s not a race featuring a great deal of strength in depth, so with underfoot conditions and the trip no problem, and Tony McCoy doing the steering, Can’t Buy Time is appealing.
Exmoor Ranger is not as obviously well treated as some, but he is 1lb lower compared to when third to Midnight Chase in a Listed handicap at Cheltenham in December. Since then things haven’t gone his way: he was hit a couple of fences hard in the Welsh National, unseated rider at Ascot and, last time at the Cheltenham Festival, he ran a better race than the bare result suggests. He will need to jump fluently on Saturday, but he proved that he can handle Sandown’s stiff fences when just failing to repel Monkerhostin in the valuable totesport Masters Handicap Chase here last February.
Balthazar King looks too short in the betting for a horse having his first start over fences outside of novice company, while his stablemate Triggerman merits respect, but may find this race coming too soon just a week after his latest start. Amigayle is not guaranteed to stay this trip and for all that it could be significant that Nicholls relies solely on Meanus Dandy from an initial strong list of entries, he’s too hit-and-miss overall to back with any great confidence.