Best Bets For Liverpool v Everton From ValueChecker

By Sam Darby on 13/03/2012 12:16

One of the most highly anticipated games of the season takes place on Tuesday night when the match between Liverpool and Everton at Anfield divides the City for a night. This should be an exceptionally close match, who will have the bragging rights this week according to ValueChecker?

It is no surprise that the ValueChecker Steamers have thrown up the draw as the best bet in this match. The Value Bets are based on a statistical analysis of previous results and with Liverpool drawing eight out of thirteen home games this season in the Premiership and this fixture having been drawn in three of the last four occasions ValueChecker had little choice but to flag up the draw as the best bet here really. The draw is currently available at 3.70 but ValueChecker thinks the real price based on form this season should be more like 1.96 and that difference in odds means that ValueChecker has assigned this a value rating of 0.38.

One in running for this pointer shown up by the Liverpool ValueChecker wikis is that Liverpool have a bad record when they concede the first goal in their matches. In the 10/11 Premiership season Liverpool conceded the first goal in 10 games and lost 9 of them and the season before Liverpool conceded first in 13 of their matches and lost 11 of those games. That is a very large proportion for such a good team and Everton might still be a decent price even if they go 1-0 up in this match.

Also according to the Everton ValueChecker wikis, they shouldn’t be underestimated against the better teams in the league. Everton have often been a team to have on your side when playing against the 'better' opposition in the Premiership, in the 10/11 season Everton had the joint third best record against top half opposition picking up 28 points in the 18 games against the eventual top ten and they also did well against the top teams the previous season, they had the joint fifth best record that season after gaining 25 points in the 18 games in question.

If you fancy Liverpool to win this game it should pay to back them to win narrowly. Liverpool’s last two wins in this fixture have been by 1-0 scorelines and it is also worth noting that when Everton lose it tends to only be by the odd goal. In the 10/11 Premiership season Everton lost 10 games, 7 of which were lost by a 1 goal margin. In the 09/10 season Everton lost 9 matches and 6 of those were lost by a 1 goal margin.

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