Benfica The Value In Champions League First Leg Against Chelsea

By Sam Darby on 27/03/2012 10:18

Chelsea travel to Portugal on Tuesday night looking for more Champions League glory but the odds suggest they are in for a struggle possibly in this match, Chelsea are strong favourites to qualify from this tie but outsiders to win this first leg. Let’s see what ValueChecker makes of this Champions League Quarter Final First Leg.

According to the ValueChecker Value Bets it is Benfica who catch the eye on Tuesday night on their home turf. Benfica have already gained a home draw in this season’s Champions League against Man Utd and ValueChecker fancies them to go one better with a win against Chelsea. The ValueChecker Value Bets are selected on the basis of a statistical analysis of previous results and it seems Benfica are a very good bet here as ValueChecker suggests that the correct odds of a home win are 1.88 rather than the 2.46 that is available at the time of writing. That difference in odds means that ValueChecker has assigned Benfica a value rating of 0.35 for this match.

The Chelsea ValueChecker wikis show that Chelsea might be a good bet to get a penalty in this match as Chelsea seem to be the Premiership team most likely to be awarded penalties. In the 10/11 Premiership season Chelsea were awarded 6 penalties and in the 09/10 season they were awarded a huge 11 penalties. This also means Frank Lampard could be a good goalscorer bet, don’t forget he scored a penalty against Napoli in his last Champions League game.

Another interesting goalscorer bet for Chelsea could be Didier Drogba and if he wasn’t to be selected for any reason then Chelsea’s ability to score goals against Benfica would probably be massively reduced. Didier Drogba proved an important player for Chelsea in the 10/11 Premiership season, not only providing his team with 12 goals but also 15 assists. This is no one off, in the 09/10 season Drogba played a hand in 42 goals, scoring 29 and setting up 13.

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