Chelsea travel to Barcelona tonight with a surprise one goal advantage after the first leg but many thought Chelsea were lucky to get anything out of that game and things are certainly going to be a lot tougher in the Camp Nou. It would still be a pretty big upset if Chelsea could knock Barcelona out of the Champions League this season, does ValueChecker think that they can do the impossible?
The value is certainly with Chelsea progressing according to the ValueChecker Value Bets. These are based on a statistical analysis of previous results and also a look at relative home and away form as well as previous matches between the two teams and ValueChecker has highlighted both the away win and a draw as value bets in this match. The best value it seems is with a Chelsea win because of their huge odds, Chelsea are a top price of 11.0 but ValueChecker has them so much shorter at just 2.94 and that difference in opinion means that ValueChecker has assigned this a value rating of 0.28.
The draw has also been tipped by the ValueChecker Value Bets but this selection has only been assigned a value rating of 0.22. The draw is available at 6.51 at the time of writing but ValueChecker thinks the correct odds for this bet are 3.12 and that is once again a big difference in opinion between the bookies and ValueChecker. It is ValueChecker who could be right though as the last three games between these two teams at the Camp Nou have all ended in a draw which makes this look even better value.
If Chelsea are within one goal of qualifying in the latter stages of the match tonight there could be some value in backing them in running to qualify according to the Chelsea ValueChecker wikis. Chelsea have a great record of scoring late goals in their Premiership games. In the 10/11 Premiership season Chelsea scored 20 goals between the 76th minute and the final whistle whilst the season before they had an even better record scoring 26 goals between the 76th minute and the final whistle. In both seasons no team scored more goals in that time window and Chelsea should be favoured in any in running market where late goals can be profitable.
Chelsea don’t need to score to go through tonight, a 0-0 draw will see them qualify, but should Barcelona score enough goals to make Chelsea need to attack it may be imperative for Chelsea that Didier Drogba is on the pitch. He not only scored in the first leg but Didier Drogba proved an important player for Chelsea in the 10/11 Premiership season, having providing his team with 12 goals and also 15 assists for Chelsea. This is no one off, in the 09/10 season Drogba played a hand in 42 goals, scoring 29 and setting up 13. A look at the line ups could be the most important bit of research before this game starts as Chelsea are heavily reliant on Drogba when it comes to scoring and making goals.
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