Man City take on Man Utd tonight in the match that has been called the biggest Manchester derby ever and even the most important Premiership match ever but what are the best bets today according to ValueChecker?
It seems that the worse value in this match according to the ValueChecker Value Bets is the draw with ValueChecker throwing up both winning outcomes as value bets. The best value lies with Man Utd according to the ValueChecker Value Bets which are based on a statistical analysis of previous results. Man Utd are available at 3.60 at the time of writing but according to ValueChecker their odds should be more like 2.29 and that difference in odds means that ValueChecker has assigned this a value rating of 0.28.
The value rating for Man City is a bit lower than the one for Man Utd, Man City have a value rating of 0.19 because of the difference in odds between what is available on the home win and what ValueChecker suggests should be the correct price on City, they can be backed at 2.30 but ValueChecker reckons that is too big and it is easy to see why considering Man City’s home form.
The Man City ValueChecker wikis show just how good Man City have been at home over the past twelve months, Man City have won 20 of their last 21 league games, having draw the other. That would make a loss for Man City pretty unlikely (even if Man Utd are the best team they will have played in that run) and with the draw not fancied by ValueChecker the home win could be a good bet here.
The draw may not be fancied at full time according to ValueChecker but a draw could be a good half time bet according to the Man Utd ValueChecker wikis. Man Utd are obviously one of the best backed teams each week in the Premiership but caution should be advised if betting on the half time or half time/full time markets when Man Utd are playing away from home. In the 10/11 Premiership season Man Utd were winning just 4 away games at half time (10 draws and 5 losses) whilst in the 09/10 Premiership season Man Utd were winning just 6 away games at half time (10 draws and 3 losses). With so little between the teams that looks one of the best bets here.
Both the Man Utd ValueChecker wikis and Man City ValueChecker wikis show that this game can throw up some low scoring results. In the five league meetings where Man City were at home between 2007 and 2010 four games finished 1-0 (three in Man Utd's favour, one in Man city's favour) and the other game finished 0-0. These should be the correct scores to concentrate on and a bet on under 2.5 goals would cover all of those outcomes.
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