2012 Grand National Odds complete with trends and statistics
With the 2011/12 National Hunt season beginning to hit full stride we thought it was time to take a look at next April's Grand National to see if there is any ante-post value to be had with our leading bookmakers. Below are some of the most valuable statistics and trends needed to find the 2012 winner.
AGE – 9 and 10-year-old's starting to rule the roost
Since 2003 eight out of the nine winners were aged either 9 or 10 years old.
EXPERIENCE – Novices will find this test too tough
The last ten winners had all run at least ten times over fences prior to the big race.
LAID OUT FOR THE RACE – Protecting your handicap mark
Some shrewd trainers will have this race in mind for their horse up to a year or more in advance and will endeavour to protect their charges handicap mark by running in hurdle races. Eight off the last ten winners had run in at least one hurdle race during the season they won the big race.
WEIGHT – Carrying much over 11 stone is a negative
With 4 ½ miles to run and 30 fences to jump carrying too much weight is obviously a big negative. In the last ten years only one winner carried over 11st 1lb.
STAMINA – Stamina probably the most crucial factor
If a horse doesn't get the trip then most of the above credentials will matter very little. Every winner since 1970 had won over at least 3 miles so don't be tempted in by a classy 2 ½ mile chaser.
SUMMARY – So we are looking for a 9 or 10 year old with plenty of experience not too high in the handicap with bundles of stamina. Obviously with several months to go there will be many horses fitting the profile, but one horse stands out as looking reasonable value at this stage.
Always Right trained by John Wade will be ten years old on the day of the race, will have the necessary chasing experience by then and has won over 3 ¼ miles already. Add to that the fact that he ran tremendous race when third in the Scottish National over four miles and you can see he ticks all the boxes.
Victor Chandler and Stan James currently offer 41.00, with bigger odds possibly available on Betfair. At this stage Always Right warrants a small investment.